More war drums with Israeli jets in Iraq, but someone says “no, there will be no attack.”

Here’s a revelation.  The US has been housing Israeli Air Force jets in Iraq, at Haditha and in Al Anbar province, apparently jointly preparing for an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities:

The US has allowed Israeli jets to use US airbases in Iraq and fly over Iraqi airspace for a likely attack against Iran, Iraqi media say.
It is more than a month that some Israeli planes belonging to Israeli air force use the US military bases in Iraq to land and take off, Iraqi Nahrainnet news network said Wednesday, quoting informed sources close to Iraq’s Defense Ministry.

The activities and traffic of warplanes- especially at nights- has lately increased in the US air bases in Nasiriya southeast of Baghdad and Haditha a city in the western Iraq province of Al Anbar, the Iraqi residents and sources said.

They said the US fighters, cargo planes, helicopters and unmanned planes have intensified their flights in the last three weeks.

The US military officials have imposed severe security measures around the bases, they said.

In spite of this really scary saber rattling and the rumors of war that have been flooding the sensitivities of late, Tom Englehart thinks there is no way that we’re going to even perform limited military strikes against Iran and does a great job in explaining why the costs would be just too high for the USA and for Bush’s poliltical legacy should he undertake such a venture.

First Tom notes that (probably) Karl Rove once said that the Bush administration is out to create a new reality for all of us to study.  Then Tom points out the old reality that Bush administration officials must pay attention to in order to create this new reality.  He says:

Nonetheless, sometimes — as in Iraq — reality has a way of biting back, no matter how mad or how powerful the imperial dreamer. So, let’s consider reality for a moment. When it comes to Iran, reality means oil and natural gas. These days, any twitch of trouble, or potential trouble, affecting the petroleum market, no matter how minor — from Mexico to Nigeria — forces the price of oil another bump higher.

Possessing the world’s second largest reserves of oil and natural gas, Iran is no speed bump on the energy map. The National Security Network, a group of national security experts, estimates that the Bush administration’s policy of bluster, threat, and intermittent low-level actions against Iran has already added a premium of $30-$40 to every $140 barrel of oil. Then there was the one-day $11 spike after Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz suggested that an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities was “unavoidable.”

Given that, let’s imagine, for a moment, what almost any version of an air assault — Israeli, American, or a combination of the two — would be likely to do to the price of oil. When asked recently by Brian Williams on NBC Nightly News about the effects of an Israeli attack on Iran, correspondent Richard Engel responded: “I asked an oil analyst that very question. He said, ‘The price of a barrel of oil? Name your price: $300, $400 a barrel.'” Former CIA official Robert Baer suggested in Time Magazine that such an attack would translate into $12 gas at the pump. (“One oil speculator told me that oil would hit $200 a barrel within minutes.”)

Those kinds of price leaps could take place in the panic that preceded any Iranian response. But, of course, the Iranians, no matter how badly hit, would be certain to respond — by themselves and through proxies in the region in a myriad of possible ways. Iranian officials have regularly been threatening all sorts of hell should they be attacked, including “blitzkrieg tactics” in the region. Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari typically swore that his country would “react fiercely, and nobody can imagine what would be the reaction of Iran.” The head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Mohammed Jafari, said: “Iran’s response to any military action will make the invaders regret their decision and action.” (“Mr. Jafari had already warned that if attacked, Iran would launch a barrage of missiles at Israel and close the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf.”) Ali Shirazi, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, offered the following: “The first bullet fired by America at Iran will be followed by Iran burning down its vital interests around the globe.”



Read the rest of this very interesting article here:

P.S.  I’m not saying that I agree with Tom, I think that there is a good possibility that Iran is attacked before the end of the year.  We’ll see eh.  I pray that this doesn’t occur.

Update: 7/11/08

Israel’s chief salesman for a war against Iran, Ehud Barak, is coming to the USA next week for “consultations” on Iran.  He’ll meet with Cheney, Gates, Rice, Hadley and Ban Ki Moon.  He is to be followed shortly by the IDF’s Chief of Staff, Lt. General Gabi Ashkenazi and is immediately preceeded by Mossad Chief, Meir Dagan.

Don’t be too surprised if your prediction doesn’t come true Tom.


5 Responses to “More war drums with Israeli jets in Iraq, but someone says “no, there will be no attack.””

  1. 1 cornishevangelist July 11, 2008 at 7:25 am

    Billy’s latest prophecy.
    A war, a terrible war is about to break out in the Middle East, but fear not , this is not the war spoken of by the prophet Joel 3v14. For that war is yet to come. My people, do not be afraid, for this war shall not hurt you, saith the Lord.
    This prophecy came to me in the evening of the 10th July 2008.

  2. 2 inthesenewtimes July 11, 2008 at 8:09 am

    The problem is that the US need Iran to help them extricate themselves from Iraq. In a sane world that would be enough to convince us it won’t happen, but…..

  3. 3 theradicalmormon July 11, 2008 at 2:58 pm

    Yes, and with the bizzare Karl Rove quote referred to in the Tomdispatch article about the genesis of new reality by the Bush administration the sanity of this world is completely unreliable. Heaven help us.

    That’s a safe prophecy. Though I really hope your prophecy antenna is out of tune, all of the scriptures tell us that these times will eventually come.

  4. 4 william July 11, 2008 at 10:46 pm

    hi radical mormon,
    i’ve read parts of your blog. maybe you should think of writing a piece for the mormon worker-will vanwagenen

  5. 5 theradicalmormon July 12, 2008 at 12:15 am

    Thanks for reading Will, and thanks for the invitation. I’ll look into it.

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