Another wise man who thinks there is a good chance that we’re headed for war with Iran.

I’d recommend reading the whole article on this one.  Find the link at the bottom of this excerpt:

As Polk points out, Bush has made pre-emptive war a cardinal tenet of the official U.S. national security policy, declaring that America “will not wait” for potential security threats to develop, but will “confront challenges earlier and more comprehensively, before they are allowed to mature…In all cases, we will seek to seize the initiative and dictate the tempo, timing, and direction of military operations.”

Under such a policy, uncertainty about a potential threat actually becomes a spur to military action. Cheney has long been an evangelist for the “one-percent solution;” i.e., if there is even a one percent chance that some threat might prove true, you must act as if the danger is 100 percent certain to occur. This paranoid lunacy — or shrewd marketing device to guarantee non-stop boodle from war profiteering — is now the official governing philosophy of America’s foreign policy.

You must read Polk’s entire piece to get the full weight and impact of the facts he marshals. But below are a few pertinent excerpts:

The article [a piece in US News and World Report outlining “six signs that the U.S. may be headed for war in Iran”] curiously passes over in silence the much more impressive build-up of naval power in the Persian Gulf. As of the last report I have seen, a major part of the U.S. Navy is deployed in and around the Persian Gulf. The numbers are stunning and include not only a vast array of weapons, including nuclear weapons, cruise and other missiles and hundreds of aircraft but also “insertion” (invasion) forces and equipment. Even then, these already deployed forces amount to only a fraction of the total that could be brought to bear on Iran because aircraft, both bombers and troop and equipment transports, stationed far away in Central Asia, the Indian Ocean, Europe and even in America can be quickly employed .

Of course, deploying forces along Iran’s frontier does not necessarily mean using them. At least that is what the Administration says. However, as a historian and former participant in government, I believe that having troops and weapons on the spot makes their use more likely than not. Why is that?

It is because a massive build-up of forces inevitably creates the “climate” of war. Troops and the public, on both sides, come to accept its inevitability. Standing down is difficult and can entail loss of “face.” Consequently, political leaders usually are carried forward by the flow of events. Having taken steps 1, 2 and 3, they find taking step number 4 logical, even necessary. In short, momentum rather than policy begins to control action. As Barbara Tuchman showed in her study of the origins of the First World War, The Guns of August, even though none of the parties really wanted to go to war, none could stop the process. It was the fact that President Kennedy had been reading Tuchman’s book just before the Cuban Missile Crisis, I believe, that made him so intent on not being “hijacked by events.” His restraint was unusual. More common is a surrender to “sequence” as was shown by the 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It would have taken a major reversal of policy – and considerable political bravery — to halt either invasion once the massive build-up was in place. No such effort was made then. Will it be now? I think the odds are against it.

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2008/032208Floyd.shtml

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2 Responses to “Another wise man who thinks there is a good chance that we’re headed for war with Iran.”


  1. 1 The work and the glory March 23, 2008 at 7:44 pm

    What Mitt Romney did yesterday is right out of the Mormon playbook. They are taught to tap- dance around the truth with the ferocity of a Busby Berkley chorus line when asked about their actual beliefs. Of course, once you realize what those beliefs are, who could blame them? On some level, Mormons secretly know that some of the more ludicrous tenets of their pyramid scheme are hard to swallow. That is way, just like the sister faith (Amway), they try to wow you with how pretty everything is before they ask…

  2. 2 theradicalmormon March 23, 2008 at 8:06 pm

    Where in left field did that come from?


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